China was the most populated country in the world with a population of 1.42 billion people in 2021.In the table below, countries are ranked from the highest to lowest average births per woman in 2020. Which Country has the Highest Fertility Rate?Īccording to the UN, nearly two-thirds of the world’s population lives in a region where the fertility rate is below the critical 2.1 threshold. This is down more than two times from 4.7 in 1960.īut the world’s average hides the vast disparities between the fertility rate of countries. In 2020, the world’s fertility rate stood at 2.3, slightly above the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman, which allows for one generation to replace itself.

The world fertility rate (expressed as the number of children per woman) has been falling steadily since the 1970s. ℹ️ The age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) “measures the annual number of births to women of a specified age or age group per 1,000 women in that age group,” according to the UN. However, decades of past data collected by the World Bank help show some overall trends around the world, and in many countries. The woman will bear children according to the age-specific fertility rates currently observedīoth assumptions add some uncertainty to future fertility rate projections.The woman will live to the end of her childbearing years.This measurement makes two key assumptions, however: The total fertility rate is the average number of births per woman over a lifetime. Explained: Fertility and Replacement Rates To understand that, we need to first untangle fertility rates, and why they’re falling. What does that mean for modern nation states conditioned to expect a constant influx of new citizens and labor to power their economies? And how can those changing economies adapt to a shrinking population? However, the UN forecasts that rapid growth will slow down-and may even stop entirely by 2100-because of falling fertility rates. This continuous climb in global population has been possible thanks to advancements in healthcare and nutrition. Over the next 220 years, the number grew to eight times that, or the 8 billion people who live on the planet today, with half of the growth occurring since 1975. Visualizing the World’s Plummeting Fertility RateĪt the dawn of the 19th century, the world population hit a big milestone: 1 billion people. Humanity’s peak population is expected to be about 10.5 billion. The world’s population is expected to peak later, around the 2080s. India’s peak population will stand at around 1.7 billion people. Once India becomes the world’s largest country, it will likely remain so for many decades in the future, peaking in the 2060s (unless there are substantial changes in projected growth rates).

Since the invasion began in February 2022, nearly 14 million border crossings have been recorded from Ukraine to other countries. Ukraine, which was shrinking, is expected to fall to at least 41st place due to the turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of the country. Today, only Russia and Germany remain, with the latter country soon to fall out of the top 20 ranking. Back in 1973, there were six European countries in this top list. By 2100, one quarter of the world’s people are expected to be African.Įurope is the flip side of this equation. Today, it is joined by Ethiopia, Egypt, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo – all of which have experienced staggering population growth.Īfrican nations are expected to lead population growth over the next few decades. Looking back 50 years ago, Nigeria was the lone African nation in the top 20. Things get even more interesting when we examine the top 20 most populous countries over the same time period. Today, there are 15 countries past that mark, with Vietnam positioned to hit that milestone next. Half a century ago, there were only six countries with populations of over 100 million. While Germany has grown by just 6% over the past 50 years, Pakistan and Nigeria have nearly quadrupled their populations. The numbers above highlight the extreme variance in growth for these world’s most populous countries. Here are the countries shown above, including how much they’ve grown over the past 50 years: Country Using the latest data available from the United Nations, we’ve looked at which countries have the largest share of the planet’s eight billion people. Of course, that growth has been far from uniform, and the ranking of the world’s most populous countries continues to evolve. Humankind is now double the size it was in 1973. The World’s Most Populous Countries (1973–2023)

Most populous countries in the world